Six Things to Watch on Election Day as Voters Decide Control of Congress
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both chambers to overturn narrow Republican majorities — and Los Angeles County voters, casting ballots until 8 p.m. Tuesday, are part of the turnout story Reuters says could decide how big the night gets.
Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, and Reuters' Election Day guide, read in full by this desk, sets out six things to watch. The results will serve as the first nationwide verdict on Trump's presidency, revealing whether voters want to check his power by giving Democrats control of one or both chambers, despite frustrations over the cost of living and the war with Iran.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both the House and the Senate to overturn Republicans' narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities, according to the Reuters analysis. Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the House, but the Senate battle remains highly competitive: the close fight will likely hinge on six to eight races, and Democrats need to flip several Republican-held seats in states Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024, including Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas, while holding Michigan and picking up Maine. Early results from Republican-held House seats in Florida and Virginia could provide the first clues to the size of any Democratic gains.
The guide also flags problems at the polls and in the count: election officials have warned that close races could spark disputes over voter eligibility, ballot counting and certification, and Trump's Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 monitors nationwide on Election Day, roughly triple the number used in the last midterms. Turnout is its own storyline — opinion polls showed Democrats significantly more enthusiastic heading into Election Day, while strategists caution that young, Black and Hispanic voters have historically turned out at lower rates in midterms. In Los Angeles County, that turnout question plays out at 646 vote centers, open Monday until 7 p.m. and on Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Finally, Reuters asks whether Republicans' money advantage paid off — an overall spending edge of several hundred million dollars once party committees and outside groups are counted, including more than $277 million spent by Trump, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, and roughly $366 million spent by Elon Musk during the cycle — and what the results mean for 2028, when strong performances by moderates and left-wing candidates alike would let both Democratic factions claim validation. How Trump himself responds to the results, especially if Republicans lose control of Congress, could become one of the night's biggest stories.
